Venezuelans are bracing for yet another wave of repression as strongman leader Nicolas Maduro prepares to be inaugurated for a third time on Friday – sealing an election outcome that opposition politicians and the US government say was stolen.
In recent days, the government has deployed a show of force ahead of the inauguration, increasing the number of policemen and security officers on the street and detaining dozens of people across the country, including a former presidential candidate, according to human rights advocates.
The climate of fear is palpable on social media, with the Instagram account of Venezuela’s military counterintelligence agency recently posting a video of a hand knocking on a door in the middle of the night – a message suggestive of the kinds of retaliation critics might encounter.
Maduro and his allies are “showing they are not going to tolerate any dissent, and people are scared,” the diplomat said, asking to speak anonymously to avoid possible repercussions.
After a contested election, a security crackdown
Maduro’s re-election could hardly be more controversial. On July 28, he was proclaimed winner of the presidential election by electoral authorities under the tight control of the ruling Socialist Party.
When protests erupted over the vote, Maduro’s government detained over 2,000 people in less than a week to quash dissent.
Gonzalez is now on an international tour to sympathetic countries – such as the United States, whose government formally recognizes Gonzalez as Venezuela’s president-elect – to rally support for what he argues is his rightful presidency.
Likely at great personal risk, Gonzalez is also pledging to crash Maduro’s reelection party by returning to Caracas – where he is now accused of terrorism, with a $100,000 bounty on his head – ahead of the inauguration on Friday.
Several Latin American leaders, including nine former heads of state from around the region, have pledged to accompany him to Caracas, to which the Maduro government responded by banning the group from entering the country.
How exactly Gonzalez intends to do it is anyone’s guess: Maduro remains firmly in control of the country’s military, and security measures have been tightened as the government claims to be under constant threats of insurgencies and foreign plots.
On Tuesday, Maduro deployed Venezuela’s army to the streets to “guarantee the victory of peace.” He also announced that seven foreign mercenaries, including two US citizens and three Ukrainians, had been detained for terrorism in the country, without showing any proof but promising the group will soon confess their alleged crime.
“It’s really tense,” says Gerardo, a tourist guide who often travels outside Caracas and who believes the number of checkpoints and controls has increased in recent days.
“It’s not normal to have military counterintelligence, and not just the police, manning the checkpoints on the road to the airport… Driving around and you suddenly are stopped by men in balaclavas with an AK-47 asking to see your ID,” he said, asking to go only by his first name because of security concerns.
Arrests and ‘political beheading’
In quick succession, Tuesday also saw the alleged detentions of Gonzalez’s son-in-law, Rafael Tudares; Carlos Correa, a human rights activist and the director of the NGO Espacio Publico; and Enrique Marquez, who also ran for president in July, according to their families.
Such detentions have a clear strategy – “political beheading,” according to Gonzalo Himiob, the director of Foro Penal, a Venezuelan NGO that provides legal assistance to political prisoners.
“It means putting a leader in jail to scare off the entire movement, political or human rights,” Himiob said.
“Correa is a veteran of human rights activism in Venezuela, he’s a reference for the entire human rights movement. His reported detention and forced disappearance are very serious, because it foresees the repressive response the Government is mounting ahead of Friday’s inauguration,” said Laura Dib, Director of the Venezuelan Program at the Washington Office for Latin America, a think tank.
Meanwhile, Maduro has increased his public appearances. He maintains the show of force is necessary to prevent his country from falling into chaos and conspiracies, though the Venezuelan government has so far presented no proof of any destabilizing plot.
One high-profile case in recent weeks involves Nahuel Gallo, an Argentinian policeman detained in Venezuela late last year. Caracas accuses him of plotting to kill Maduro’s deputy Delcy Rodriguez, while Buenos Aires says Gallo was simply visiting his partner’s family for the holidays. Over the last six months, at least 125 people of 25 different nationalities have been detained on similar charges, according to interior minister Diosdado Cabello.
The first possible major confrontation between the government and its critics could come on Thursday, when Gonzalez’s ally in the country Maria Corina Machado has vowed to lead mass protests.
Her supporters are keenly aware of the risks .“One tries not to be paranoid, but you go to the streets, and you see so many policemen, so many of them looking for you, it’s hard to remain calm,” said an opposition leader in the central state of Aragua, who asked to speak anonymously for fears of retaliation.
“Personally, I haven’t decided if I’ll go out on Thursday or not, we need to see what happens,” he said.
In a video message on Tuesday, Machado told supporters to have courage and welcome defectors with open arms. Many security officials in uniform are actually ready to turn their backs on Maduro, she also said.
It’s not impossible, according to another diplomat in Caracas, who said the government’s actions could well be signaling that it also fears dissent in the uniformed ranks.
“The fact the government is sending out other security corps to integrate those already on the street indicates that they are suspicious of within their own ranks too,” the diplomat said.
‘They can do it again’
For many, this new wave of government muscle has a feeling of déjà-vu, as the country went through a similar cycle of expectations and repression in the summer after the presidential vote.
Nathaly’s teenage son was detained on August 2 as part of a widespread security crackdown on protests after the vote. He was held until December 20 when the government released hundreds of political prisoners in a gesture of leniency ahead of Christmas.
When she finally saw him walking out of jail, “it was like my soul came back to my body: every step we walked, I was feeling lighter,” Nathaly remembers.
“He did nothing wrong, he was just walking the streets… When he got out, he had lost 19 kilograms and from that moment I never lost sight of him… I’m just terrified if they did it once, they can do it again…” she said.
“Every mother in Venezuela holds the same fear: don’t take away our children,” she says.